[0:00] [Music]
[0:00] Afghanistan's rulers say their border
[0:03] with Pakistan doesn't exist. They call
[0:05] the current demarcation imaginary. One
[0:08] senior Taliban minister even claimed
[0:10] that Afghan territory extends as far as
[0:13] the at bridge deep inside Pakistan.
[0:16] That's not isolated rhetoric. It echoes
[0:19] a broader sentiment within the Taliban
[0:22] government where many see the border as
[0:24] an illegitimate colonial line drawn more
[0:28] than a century ago. The recent clashes
[0:31] along the border proved the point. After
[0:34] months of rising tensions and sporadic
[0:36] attacks, the situation boiled over into
[0:39] open conflict in early October. Both
[0:42] sides exchanged artillery, gunfire, and
[0:44] air strikes, and each blamed the other
[0:47] for starting the fight.
[0:49] The timing could hardly be worse. Since
[0:51] 2025, more than 2 million Afghan
[0:54] refugees have been deported from Iran
[0:57] and Pakistan, with some estimates
[0:59] placing the total closer to 3.4 million.
[1:03] The United Nations has warned that this
[1:05] mass return is compounding instability
[1:08] in a country already crippled by
[1:10] economic collapse, food shortages, and
[1:13] weak governance.
[1:15] Renewed conflict in Afghanistan would
[1:18] not remain contained. Its shock waves
[1:20] would inevitably reach across the
[1:23] region. History offers a grim warning.
[1:25] For centuries, Afghanistan buried
[1:28] empires that sought to conquer it. Yet
[1:31] now, in chasing the ghosts of lost
[1:33] glory, it risks joining them in the same
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[3:27] [Music]
[3:31] Since taking control of Afghanistan in
[3:33] August 2021, the Taliban has allowed
[3:36] militant groups to operate freely inside
[3:39] its territory. While the Taliban itself
[3:42] has not carried out major attacks
[3:44] outside Afghan territory, they have
[3:47] given shelter and support to terrorist
[3:49] cells that undermine regional security
[3:53] particularly at Pakistan's expense. One
[3:56] of these groups is the Triik E Taliban
[3:59] Pakistan or TTP for short, which is an
[4:02] anti-Pakistan militant organization with
[4:05] massive territorial claims. The Afghan
[4:08] Taliban reportedly supports the TTP with
[4:11] weapons training and safe locations,
[4:14] especially in the eastern provinces of
[4:16] Kunar and Nangar. Of course, the Taliban
[4:20] denies involvement, but many within its
[4:23] senior ranks have close ties with TTP
[4:26] militants, and TTP leaders have appeared
[4:29] openly at official events in the Afghan
[4:31] capital. As a result, Pakistan accuses
[4:35] the Taliban government of failing to
[4:37] constrain the TTP if not outright
[4:40] supporting it. This accusation, however,
[4:43] is tied to a much older grievance, one
[4:45] that traces back to the Durand line
[4:49] drawn in 1893 by the British Empire. The
[4:52] Durand line split ethnic Pashtune
[4:55] communities between Afghanistan and what
[4:58] later became Pakistan. The line itself
[5:01] was based on the range of British
[5:03] rifles, not on where people actually
[5:05] lived. Little to no consideration was
[5:08] given to geography, history, or the
[5:11] realities on the ground. For the locals,
[5:14] the agreement was a disaster. It cut
[5:17] through communities that had coexisted
[5:19] for centuries. The Poshon people were
[5:22] particularly affected. The new border
[5:24] divided their towns and cities. Even
[5:27] now, 132 years later, successive Afghan
[5:31] governments continue to reject the Duran
[5:34] line. That's not surprising though.
[5:36] Nearly three times as many ethnic
[5:38] pashons live in Pakistan as they do in
[5:41] Afghanistan, which has always fueled
[5:44] strong irudentist feelings in Kabul. So
[5:48] while Islamabad treats the Duran line as
[5:50] a recognized international border, Kabul
[5:54] and by extension the TTP views it as
[5:57] illegitimate. The TTP's self-proclaimed
[6:00] objective is therefore to stoke
[6:02] instability and undermine Pakistan's
[6:05] authority in Kyber, Pakunwa and parts of
[6:09] Baloasan and then have these regions
[6:12] join Afghanistan.
[6:14] This is the map often associated with
[6:16] that claim. An Afghanistan that borders
[6:18] the Indus River at the Atuk Bridge and
[6:21] snakes down along the river to the sea.
[6:24] It encompasses all ethnic Pashtune
[6:26] territories and then some. There is of
[6:29] course strategic planning behind this
[6:31] territorial claim. If an Afghan
[6:34] government were ever able to unite the
[6:36] Poshon people into a single political
[6:38] entity, Pashtun dominance, currently
[6:42] about 40% of Afghanistan's population,
[6:45] would grow stronger. Moreover, control
[6:48] over sparsely populated Baloasan would
[6:51] give Afghanistan access to the sea.
[6:54] These two goals, becoming an ethnic
[6:56] majority and escaping landlocked
[6:59] isolation, could form the foundation for
[7:02] a modern centralized Afghan state. It's
[7:05] a vision that has been shared by all
[7:07] Afghan governments, old and new,
[7:10] including the Taliban and the TTP.
[7:13] However, it's doubtful that Pakistani
[7:15] poshons would want to join with their
[7:17] Afghan kin just as it is unlikely that
[7:21] ethnic Baloi would want anything to do
[7:23] with Afghanistan. Pakistan has plenty of
[7:26] social and economic problems. But it's
[7:29] miles ahead of Afghanistan in all
[7:31] metrics. Still, such facts may prove
[7:34] irrelevant. Ordinary people rarely get
[7:37] to decide their fate when caught in the
[7:39] gears of geopolitics.
[7:41] This post by the Afghan interior
[7:43] ministry leaves little to
[7:45] interpretation. It literally says that
[7:48] the Duran line between Afghanistan and
[7:50] Pakistan was imposed by force and that
[7:54] the Taliban seeks to reclaim the usurped
[7:56] territories. Broadly speaking, while the
[8:00] Afghan position is understandable, it is
[8:02] by no means unique. In fact, many ethnic
[8:06] communities are divided by borders. It's
[8:08] almost a common feature. Heck, even
[8:11] within Afghanistan, there are ethnic
[8:13] groups that are split from their
[8:15] counterparts abroad, including the
[8:17] Persian, Tajik, Usuzbck, and Turkmen
[8:20] communities.
[8:21] And while the Duran line was indeed
[8:23] drawn by the British, so too were all of
[8:27] Afghanistan's other borders. The
[8:29] northern boundary with Usuzbekiststan
[8:31] and Tajikhstan was delineated by the
[8:34] British diplomat Nicholas Okconer while
[8:37] the western frontier with Iran was
[8:39] mapped by Louis Dane. So if Afghanistan
[8:43] can claim half of Pakistan's territory
[8:45] on ethnic grounds, it inevitably raises
[8:49] questions about its own legitimacy since
[8:52] roughly 60% of Afghanistan is inhabited
[8:55] by non-partons.
[8:57] The point is the Taliban's nationalist
[9:00] and irudidentist logic is shortsighted.
[9:03] These types of conflicts always cut both
[9:06] ways and if pressed on, the blowback
[9:09] could be unimaginable.
[9:14] Since early 2024, tensions between
[9:17] Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban
[9:20] government have spiraled out of control.
[9:23] TTP fighters have stepped up attacks on
[9:25] Pakistani targets especially in the
[9:28] Kyber Paktunka and Baloasan regions. For
[9:32] comparison, more than 2600 Pakistani
[9:35] security personnel have been killed in
[9:38] the last 4 years. Media outlets in this
[9:42] part of the world are tightly
[9:43] controlled. So it's nearly impossible to
[9:46] verify some of the details
[9:48] independently. But we do know the
[9:50] following. In March 2024, Pakistan
[9:54] launched air strikes on suspected TTP
[9:56] hideouts inside Afghanistan, prompting
[9:59] Kabell to denounce the raids as a
[10:01] violation of sovereignty. A few months
[10:04] later, in September, new skirmishes
[10:06] erupted when Afghan Taliban border
[10:08] guards exchanged fire with Pakistani
[10:11] forces near Kuram and Coast. By December
[10:15] 2024, Pakistani strikes in Paktika again
[10:19] targeted TTP camps, killing civilians
[10:22] and drawing strong protests from Kabul.
[10:25] The following year, in March and April
[10:28] 2025, there were major infiltration
[10:31] attempts by TTP militants into
[10:34] Pakistan's Wazeristan region and dozens
[10:37] were killed as a result. Since these
[10:40] events, the conflict has only
[10:42] accelerated. Pakistan changed its rules
[10:45] of engagement in August and went on the
[10:48] offensive. It launched a massive
[10:50] counterterrorism operation against the
[10:53] TTP in the northwest of the country.
[10:56] This operation is still ongoing as we
[10:58] speak and it underscores that Islamabad
[11:02] is now at the tipping point at which it
[11:04] believes it has no choice but to take
[11:07] unilateral action against the TTP. Since
[11:11] then, hostilities have continued to
[11:13] intensify. On October 9th, TTP militants
[11:17] ambushed Pakistani paramilitary troops,
[11:20] killing 11. A day later, Pakistan
[11:23] responded with air strikes in Kabell and
[11:25] other Afghan positions where senior TTP
[11:29] leaders were believed to be in hiding.
[11:31] In retaliation, Afghan Taliban forces,
[11:35] not the TTP, targeted Pakistani border
[11:38] posts along the Duran line. This fueled
[11:41] hours of the most intense skirmishes
[11:44] reported between the two sides since the
[11:46] Taliban retook control of Afghanistan in
[11:49] 2021. Both sides claimed to have
[11:52] inflicted heavy casualties on the other
[11:55] while claiming to have sustained far
[11:58] fewer casualties themselves. Both sides
[12:01] also reported to have captured dozens of
[12:03] the others border outposts during the
[12:06] fight. Again, in this corner of the
[12:08] world, these allegations are difficult
[12:10] to verify independently.
[12:13] After more than a week of fighting,
[12:15] mediators from Qatar and Turkey brokered
[12:18] a ceasefire on October 19th. Pakistani
[12:21] and Afghan Taliban officials pledged to
[12:24] curb crossber violence and rein in
[12:27] militant activity. But that truce is
[12:30] already looking shaky. Small-scale
[12:32] clashes between Taliban, TTP, and
[12:35] Pakistani forces are sporadically
[12:38] ongoing and will likely persist for some
[12:40] time. Internal factionalism within the
[12:44] Taliban further complicates the
[12:46] enforcement of any truths. While the
[12:48] Taliban and the TTP have close ties, the
[12:52] latter enjoys complete autonomy. If the
[12:54] Afghan Taliban were to come down hard on
[12:57] the TTP, it would risk internal disscent
[13:00] and so the Taliban has to cater to its
[13:03] internal jihadist ecosystem. Truce is
[13:06] therefore unlikely. But suppose for
[13:09] argument's sake that a genuine truce was
[13:12] restored and maintained. Resolving the
[13:15] underlying reasons for the conflict
[13:17] would be exceedingly tricky. The
[13:19] geography of the region doesn't help
[13:21] either. South Asia and Central Asia form
[13:24] an interlin security landscape. Any
[13:27] escalation could quickly draw in powers
[13:30] from far and near. Qatar has stepped up
[13:33] as a mediator and is now hosting talks.
[13:37] Doha maintains open channels with
[13:39] various factions within the Taliban when
[13:42] few others could and this could be
[13:44] instrumental. Saudi Arabia could also
[13:47] get involved given its mutual defense
[13:49] pact with Pakistan. The Saudis view
[13:52] regional stability as crucial to
[13:54] safeguarding their growing security and
[13:57] economic ties with Islamabad.
[14:00] China too has stakes in the outcome. It
[14:03] previously mediated between the Afghan
[14:05] Taliban and Pakistan and holds enormous
[14:08] economic interests in regional stability
[14:12] particularly in Pakistan. Even the
[14:14] United States could enter the picture.
[14:17] Trump has expressed interest in Bagram
[14:19] air base and Pakistan's outreach to
[14:21] Washington could pave the way for US
[14:24] involvement though it would come with
[14:26] high costs and security risks. India
[14:30] meanwhile may see opportunity in the
[14:32] chaos. Afghanistan is rich in rare
[14:35] earths and with China's export controls
[14:38] in place, India's defense industry is
[14:41] left with growing shortages. New Delhi
[14:44] would therefore welcome any chance to
[14:46] secure rare earth deposits even if it
[14:50] means strange bedfellows. Interestingly,
[14:53] the Taliban's re-imagined map of
[14:55] Afghanistan where the border extends to
[14:58] the Indus leaves out the disputed
[15:00] Kashmir region entirely in the hands of
[15:03] India. This suggests a larger strategic
[15:07] move in which India and Afghanistan team
[15:10] up to pressure Pakistan from both sides.
[15:14] It so happens that the Taliban's foreign
[15:16] minister visited India precisely as
[15:19] border clashes with Pakistan were
[15:21] escalating. The details of their
[15:23] discussions remain undisclosed and the
[15:26] timing may well be coincidental.
[15:29] However, it could just as easily signal
[15:32] a deeper strategic alignment taking
[15:34] shape. Even so, the interplay here is
[15:37] complex. India joining forces with the
[15:40] Taliban is not exactly a good look and
[15:43] Pakistan could counteract by
[15:46] strengthening ties with Bangladesh or
[15:48] backing the revival of the Northern
[15:50] Alliance. The outcome could be a new
[15:53] fragile balance with layers of
[15:56] deterrence stacked on one another. All
[15:59] of this suggests that more episodes of
[16:01] crossber attacks between the Afghan
[16:04] Taliban, the TTP, and the Pakistani army
[16:07] are likely in the coming months. That is
[16:10] hardly what the region needs, though.
[16:12] Afghanistan has not seen a single year
[16:15] of peace since 1978, and now the Taliban
[16:19] leadership is steering the country
[16:21] toward yet another war. Sometimes power
[16:24] lies in holding back. In chasing
[16:26] imaginary lines, Afghanistan risks
[16:29] crossing a very real one. The line
[16:32] between power and ruin. I've been your
[16:35] host Shivan from Caspian Report. If you
[16:37] approve of what we do, please leave a
[16:40] comment, hit the like button, and
[16:42] mayhaps share the video. In any case,
[16:45] thank you for your time and s
[16:54] [Music]